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National Energy Outlook 2017

Report | 18-12-2017

Renewable energy generation and energy saving are increasing, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are decreasing. However, various targets for energy and climate for 2020, will not be achieved. The pathway to a sustainable energy supply, over time, requires that clear policy choices are made, over the coming period.

The Netherlands National Energy Outlook (NEV) provides the current foundation for political decision-making as well as for the social debate in the Netherlands on energy and climate.

Strong growth in renewable energy: goal 2020 not feasible, goal 2023 within reach

The share of renewable energy is growing, from 6% in 2016 to 12.4% by 2020, and 16.7% by 2023 (13.0% and 17.3%, respectively, according to the calculation method 'actual production'). The target of 14% for 2020 will not be achieved, but that of 16% for 2023 is within reach.

Expected decrease in greenhouse gas emissions will remain 23% in 2020, but with great uncertainty

The expected reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, between 1990 and 2020, as reported in the previous NEV, will amount to 23%. This will not be sufficient to comply with the 25% court verdict in the Urgenda case. The expected reduction, however, has a wide uncertainty margin of 19% to 27%. This partly consists of the uncertainty about the use of conventional power plants.

Energy saving improves: pluses and minuses

The energy saving effect by 2020, resulting from the measures in the Energy Agreement, will amount to 75 petajoules. This means that the target of 100 petajoules is unlikely to be achieved. New measures are expected to provide an additional saving of 22 petajoules. However, the saving from certain other measures under the Energy Agreement have been adjusted downwards, by 15 petajoules. As a result, the total saving, on balance, is 7 petajoules higher than reported in the NEV 2016.

Author(s)Project coordination: Koen Schoots; Michiel Hekkenberg; Pieter Hammingh
Report no.3164
Publication date18-12-2017